The Multipolar Plunge: Jan. 27-Feb. 9, 2023
A brisk dive from Buns and Gutter into five recent developments in US foreign affairs, with analysis, opinion, and tips on the future balloon warfare.
1) US drops restrictions, agrees to send long-range arsenal as new Russian offensive looms
A new $2 billion military aid package for Ukraine is set to include, for the first time, precision-guided rockets capable of striking targets 100 miles away. This arsenal of Boeing-made Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) would roughly double Ukraine’s precision strike range, enabling pinpoint(ish) attacks against Russian assets well behind battle lines and deep into Russian territory. The US had previously rebuffed Ukrainian requests for such long-range weaponry over fears of Russian retaliation and escalating Washington’s role in the conflict.
The package does not appear to include the even longer-range ATACMS missile, which can attack targets almost 200 miles away and has similarly been requested by Ukraine. So, feel free to hang onto any Russian Airbnb reservations within 100-200 miles of the Ukrainian border…for now.
A majestic GLSDB in its natural habitat
The aid package—which will likely also provide advanced air defense equipment, anti-tank weaponry, and shorter-range precision-guided munitions—will be drawn from a special fund known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). This fund is so gosh dang special that it exists outside the Department of Defense’s recently approved $817 billion budget for the next fiscal year. As such, it isn’t subject to standard restrictions and oversight procedures (weak as they are). What a nice little perk!
Speaking of fun bonuses, this package stands to provide defense giant Boeing with far more than just a lucrative contract. The GLSDB is still a rookie in the global arms game. It’s got great scouting reports, but it’s untested against big-league opponents. If these rockets do a number on the Russians, Boeing is sure to net millions in free advertising via news coverage. That could be enough to overcome the A+ schwag on offer at the Lockheed Martin booth during this year’s slate of global arms fairs (Lockheed having been an early beneficiary of the Ukrainian battlefield-as-ad campaign). Stay tuned for Buns and Gutter’s definitive power ranking of arms fair tchotchkes. With defense exports up nearly 50% in 2022, this should be another banner year for the industry.
Why is this important for US foreign affairs?
This package signals both greater US involvement in the conflict and a more aggressive Ukrainian response to an imminent Russian offensive—Moscow’s biggest since its initial invasion.
So far in 2023, the US has jettisoned many of its earlier restrictions on providing ‘offensive’ weapons to Ukraine. At the start of the conflict, President Biden openly refused to provide arms that Ukraine could use to strike at Russian territory (or Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed but views as its own)—arguing that such transfers could trigger “World War III.”
Most of those restrictions have eroded, one by one, especially in the last month. A few days into the new year the US and its NATO allies agreed to first supply Ukraine with armored fighting vehicles and then, just three weeks ago, to send main battle tanks. Both are key weapons for conducting modern offensives. Long-range rockets are further evidence that Ukraine is being equipped to take the fight to Russia.
Now discussions have shifted to potentially transferring fighter aircraft. Biden recently reiterated his opposition to sending Ukraine military jets, but neither Kyiv nor Moscow are likely to view such refusals as credible anymore. It’s probably just a matter of time before this restriction—the most sensitive of the lot—also falls.
Real time footage of US arms restrictions to Ukraine
The imminent Russian offensive—and subsequent Ukrainian counter-offensive that these new weapons can facilitate—will almost certainly herald a bloodier, more dangerous phase of the war. This includes a higher risk of escalated US involvement and potential confrontation with Russia.
However, it’s unlikely that either side can bring a rapid end to the conflict through battlefield success—at least not anytime soon. A major Russian victory is still unlikely to knock Ukraine out of the war or coerce it into surrendering its stolen territory. Similarly, Ukraine’s odds of retaking and holding that territory don’t look much better according to off-the-record comments by US officials. Further skepticism on either side’s chances of a KO was recently added by the notorious peaceniks over at the Rand Corporation.
Neither renewed Russian aggression nor bigger and better arms transfers to Ukraine appear likely to bring about an end to the conflict—which may soon have killed upwards of half a million people. All of which begs the question: does the US have a real strategy here? Or have the means—ever-escalating weapons packages—come detached from a clear set of ends and simply morphed into a ‘logic’ of their own?
2) Spy balloon drama caps a week of rising US-China tensions
It’s a well-known fact that balloons are mankind’s most terrifying and deceitful flying machines. The Hindenburg. Oz conmen. Pennywise the Dancing Clown. Ones that pop when you weren’t expecting it. The list goes on.
Over the last few days, much of the continental US found itself at the mercy of one such dirigible of doom. On Thursday, a Chinese spy balloon was spotted at high altitude over Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas, presumably to start mapping the post-invasion carving of Chairman Mao’s face into Mount Rushmore. The balloon then continued its drift of terror all the way to the Carolina coast. Thankfully, on Saturday afternoon, our long national nightmare was brought to an explosive end.
"That's MY air force right there, buddy!"
So, what’s behind this unusual bit of spy drama?
The most popular theory is the balloon was gathering intelligence on US missile silos and military bases. However, the balloon’s speed and trajectory probably prevented it from collecting better images than what China’s numerous monitoring satellites already provide. US officials are now saying the balloon was outfitted to intercept certain communications. However, its capabilities clearly weren’t worrying enough to convince the military to destroy it before it completed its transcontinental sky cruise.
The Chinese are saying the whole thing was an accident (after a laughable initial statement that it was just a civilian weather balloon). Other observers interpret the balloon’s release as simply an unforced error, one which reveals gaps in President Xi’s leadership and a lack of coordination between China’s intelligence and diplomatic communities.
Mistakes and broader spy campaigns may be a part of this story. However, there’s also a diplomatic angle that is being downplayed in most major coverage. The timing of the airship’s shockingly lengthy and conspicuous voyage (compared to prior spy balloon appearances) suggests to me that this incursion is also a signal of Chinese frustration, prompted by a week of military, diplomatic, and legal broadsides from the US.
Tensions started rising on Friday, January 27th. The day began with a major US military exercise in the South China Sea and ended with the leak of a memo by a US Air Force general, in which he predicted that the US and China would be at war within the next two years. After ordering his subordinate officers to prepare for “unrepentant lethality” by practicing head shots against mannequins, the memo concludes with a bigtime energy “LET’S GO!” (and presumably 1-3 fist pumps).
Introducing your premier war correspondent for WWIII, Jomboy Media.
The Defense Department has since been squashing rumors that ‘unrepentant lethality’ is the Biden Administration's official diplomatic vision for 2023. However, events throughout the week kept US-China tensions high.
Last Tuesday, the Biden administration banned US producers of processors and other high-tech components from doing business with the Chinese tech giant Huawei over concerns that such parts tend to find their way to the Chinese military. This was followed by the announcement of a US-India tech partnership aimed at stymieing Chinese capabilities around military equipment, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence.
However, both these developments were overshadowed by the announcement of new measures to hit China where it really hurts: TikTok. A Democratic member of the Senate Intelligence Committee wrote a letter urging companies like Apple and Google to remove the Chinese-owned social media platform from their app stores. Not to be outdone, the GOP scheduled a House committee vote on a potential nationwide ban on TikTok for later in February.
US lawmakers argue that the app’s fad dances, karaoke without lyrics, and viral theories that the CIA killed a poster for revealing that the military is training giants are all just a smokescreen for a mass-scale Chinese intelligence-gathering operation. TikTok’s CEO, Shou Zi Chew, is set to testify before Congress in March. Chew will try to allay lawmakers’ fears and, more dauntingly, attempt to explain TikTok to a room of people over 40.
Banning TikTok: the only way to hide the BFG’s role in the hunt for Bin Laden
The US has also been on the offensive in the more conventional domains of great power politics. Last Wednesday, the Department of Defense announced a massive new military partnership and base-usage agreement with the Philippines. The US will now have indefinite access to four bases that just so happen to be strategically positioned near Taiwan or in the South China Sea. The State Department then announced the opening of its first embassy in the Solomon Islands since the early 1990s as part of a larger effort to contain Chinese influence in Oceania. Lastly, it seems that 15th-ballot-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy may be taking a page from his predecessor’s book and preparing another controversial visit to Taiwan in the near future.
The week was supposed to end with a high-level trip by Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to China—the first such diplomatic visit by the US in over five years. Enter the balloon. As I see it, this coast-to-coast tour was designed to accomplish one thing: tank Blinken’s visit but make the US have to pull the plug (which Blinken did on Friday).
While the balloon isn’t actually great at espionage (under these conditions), it is a decent way of retaliating and voicing China’s displeasure with the US without risking serious escalation. Launching a media-grabbing inflatable spy forced the Biden Administration to either do nothing (and get labeled ‘weak on China’ by the GOP) or cancel major diplomatic meetings and use force against a Chinese aircraft—which China can use to frame itself as the aggrieved party. As a secondary benefit, the whole ordeal just caused the White House a lot of headaches and kept them in crisis mode all weekend.
Hopefully, these talks will get picked up soon. An extended crisis will only result in the further amplification of voices—on both sides—that the world’s two most powerful states have no choice but to embrace ‘unrepentant lethality.’
3) Senators demand Turkey admit Sweden and Finland to NATO or lose out on fighter jets
Last Tuesday, Senator Chris Van Hollen (D) of Maryland called Turkey an “unfaithful ally” and urged Congress to block a large sale of F-16 fighter planes and modernization kits if Turkey doesn’t vote to admit Sweden and Finland to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He also suggested that the US and EU should consider sanctioning Turkey if it continues to oppose this expansion of the world’s most powerful military alliance.
On Thursday, Van Hollen was joined by a bipartisan group of nearly 30 other senators who vowed to oppose the F-16 deal unless Sweden and Finland get their NATO membership cards. Biden hasn’t jumped on board (yet), so at least 51 senators would be needed to actually block the arms transfer (or 67, if the Senate needs to overcome a Biden veto).
Here’s the context: In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, previously unaligned Sweden and Finland announced a joint bid to join NATO. Admitting new club members requires the consensus of every current NATO state. Most NATO members, including the US, have already taken steps to approve Sweden and Finland’s applications. However, Turkey remains the foremost obstacle to this ascension.
The formal reason for the delay is that, in Turkey’s view, Sweden and Finland have been far too lenient and welcoming of ex-pat and diaspora supporters of the Kurdish struggle for autonomy and independence. Turkey has demanded that both countries, but especially Sweden, crack down on what they claim are ‘terrorists’ and that each extradite a number of individuals charged with offenses in Turkey. (Examining the broader motivations of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in making these demands would require its own post).
Sweden and Finland are claiming that they cannot clamp down on protected free speech and or force judges to approve extradition requests, especially given Turkey’s less-than-stellar reputation for judicial independence these days. Mostly there’s been a lot of demands made, the occasional toothless declaration about overcoming differences, and very little progress.
While this has been a simmering issue for months, things started getting particularly heated a couple of weeks ago. A bunch of far-right Swedish journalists and activists decided that the best way to break through the current deadlock and convince NATO’s only Muslim-majority nation to let them in would be to stage a public burning of the holy Qur’an outside of the Turkish embassy. And then schedule another such jamboree. And then to call on their fellow Scandinavian-supremacist in Denmark and Norway (presumably via the war horn of Heimdallr or The Northman subreddits) to do the same.
Shockingly, these inflammatory rallies haven’t aided the Scandanavians’ bids. Amidst a slew of fiery speeches and diplomatic summons, Turkey indicated it could agree to Finnish membership while leaving the Swedes out in the cold. Finland rejected that possibility and affirmed that the two are a package deal.
These statements from Senator Van Hollen and others indicate that a growing number of US officials believe that standard negotiations have failed and the US should take unprecedented steps against Turkey to force this ascension through. If this happens, the effort to bolster NATO through the addition of Sweden and Finland could end up trashing relations between most of the bloc and its second-largest military (Turkey).
Furthermore, Turkey is still upset over being banned from purchasing the US’s next-generation F-35 fighter, especially since its rival, Greece, is still set to receive these jets. It views the now-threatened shipment of F-16s as necessary for modernizing its air force and could take drastic measures if it finds itself denied again. Additionally, President Erdogan is already using the crisis to drum up nationalist outrage as he fights for his political survival in this May’s presidential election.
Relations between the US and Turkey have been strained many times before. However, with both Ankara and Washington under heaps of pressure to deliver a ‘win’ on this issue, it’s quite possible we’re approaching something more dramatic.
Update: The devastation wrought by a 7.8-magnitude earthquake in Turkey and Syria on Monday—over 20,000 dead, and rising, with whole swaths of cities leveled—will probably put this emerging crisis on pause. However, that freeze is only going to last so long given the perceived stakes for all sides.
If you can consider a donation to help with relief efforts in Turkey, I’d recommend Ahbap, a Turkish relief NGO that coordinates with the government’s efforts but maintains decision-making independence. If you’d prefer a group with US non-profit status and more English-language information on its mission and transparency, Turkish Philanthropy Funds, a well-established New York-based Turkish ex-pat NGO, is also an excellent choice.
4) US ‘ironclad’ support for Israel both questioned and affirmed as violence spikes under far-right government
This week Secretary Blinken also made a trip to Israel/Palestine. His visit occurred right at the end of January, which proved to be the deadliest month for Palestinians in the occupied West Bank in almost a decade. This ignominious record comes on the heels of an extraordinarily bloody 2022, in which Israeli security forces and settlers killed more Palestinians in the West Bank than in any year since 2005.
Last year’s spike in violence, during which Palestinians also killed 20 Israelis, was overseen by a coalition government that, in June 2021, had ousted long-serving Prime Minister (and UN performance cartoonist) Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. But, in our age of sequels, reboots, and Marvel plot armor, no hero is ever really gone. This fall, Bibi bounced back to win the PMship and extend his record-setting run of 15+ years in Israel’s top job.
However, as with Jaws: The Revenge, Analyze That, or Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, the old magic wasn’t quite there—and by magic, I mean popular legitimacy and share of the electorate. To pull off his political rebound, Bibi needed a hefty boost from Israel’s fast-growing far-right parties. He, therefore, assembled a diverse coalition of mass violence authoritarians, ‘proudly homophobic' authoritarians, ethnic cleanser authoritarians, and repeat felon authoritarians, each of whom has been rewarded with powerful positions in the new Israeli government1.
To the shock of absolutely no one, electing the most ethnoreligious right-wing government in Israeli history hasn’t ameliorated 2022’s trend line for violence. In 2023, Israeli security forces and settlers are on track to double last year’s death toll for West Bank Palestinians. The previous week alone saw Israeli security forces kill nine Palestinians during a raid on a refugee camp and a Palestinian gunman kill seven Israelis at a synagogue in retaliation. The government has responded with ominous rhetoric, more raids, and plans to arm the Israeli public, which is sure to embolden further waves of Israeli settler vigilantism.
Amidst this spiraling violence, Secretary Blinken met with both Netanyahu and the President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas. To its credit, the Biden Administration has signaled it will refuse to meet with the most notorious members of the government’s far-right rogue’s gallery. Blinken called for calm by all sides and reiterated the US’s support for the—often invoked but most-likely-dead—two-state peace process.
However, as with most US involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Blinken’s intervention entailed starkly different standards for the two sides. To Israeli leaders, the Secretary of State reaffirmed the US’s “ironclad” support for Israel and gave no indication that further violence would endanger the roughly $4 billion in US military aid Israel’s set to receive this year. For the Palestinians, Blinken promised $50 million in non-military relief funds—a much smaller amount than the US provided under the Obama administration. Furthermore, unlike the US’s ‘unconditional’ aid to Israel, US funding for the Palestinian Authority has frequently been used to leverage concessions—most dramatically when the Trump administration cut off US funding entirely. Palestinian leaders are keenly aware that US remarks about Israeli de-escalation are at best a recommendation while those calling for Palestinian de-escalation are effectively a demand.
These events have raised fresh calls in the US to reassess its long-standing ‘special relationship’ with Israel. However, the obstacles against such a shift became evident last Thursday, when Republicans voted to oust Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota from her seat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
The stated cause of Omar’s removal was her prior statements on the US-Israeli relationship, for which the Congresswoman was accused of, and apologized for, promoting anti-Semitic tropes (others have contested this characterization). However, there is suspicion that Omar was targeted as part of a broader Republican response to Democrats booting GOP Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Paul Gosar from their committees in 2021. Because aggressive criticism of Israel and sharing an animated video of yourself killing fellow Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are pretty much equivalent.
While the Democrats have vehemently stood by Omar, their remarks have largely framed her as being in the GOP crosshairs because she’s a Muslim, a refugee, and a woman of color. That’s true, but it also conveniently ignores how this vote is intended to marginalize strong critics of Israel in US foreign policymaking. The GOP came after Omar because of who she is and how she wants to change US foreign affairs. The Democrats are opposed to the former but seem less concerned about the latter.
In contrast, Omar was unequivocal that both her views and her identity were under attack:
“This debate today, it’s about who gets to be an American. What opinions do we get to have, do we have to have to be counted as American?”
5) Final remaining treaty for limiting nuclear arsenals could be on its last legs
For this week’s final dose of happy news, we return full circle to US-Russian relations. On Tuesday, the US accused Russia of violating the terms of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which has been in place since 2011.
During the Cold War, US-Soviet Union arms control treaties were pretty effective at facilitating the mutual reduction of each side’s nuclear arsenal. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the US and Russia—which together possess 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons—have either withdrawn from or failed to extend most of those agreements. Many of the most effective treaties have fallen by the wayside in just the last few years as US-Russian relations have continued to deteriorate. New START is the last remaining treaty seeking to prevent a new nuclear arms race—which would be good for precisely nobody outside of nuclear silo maintenance contractors and bomb shelter manufacturers.
Specifically, the US accused the Russians of blocking mandated weapons inspectors from entering the country. The Russians aren’t contesting this claim. Rather, they are saying that US sanctions have made it impossible for Russian officials to inspect the US arsenal (US officials have disagreed with this assessment). Therefore, the Russians argue, the blocking of US inspectors to their sites is simply a response to prevent the treaty from becoming lopsided.
However, the Russians are sending mixed signals over whether they are committed to either reviving New START or completing long-standing negotiations over a new, more effective treaty called START II. The Biden Administration has stated for months that it wishes to see a new treaty ratified and that the war in Ukraine should be kept separate from both countries’ shared interest in arms control. However, such a separation appears increasingly untenable.
With global nuclear tensions at their highest since the Cuban Missile Crisis—dramatically represented by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists moving the Doomsday Clock forward to a record-low 90 seconds two weeks ago—and economies around the world straining under inflation and market shocks (along with soaring military spending), this probably isn’t the ideal moment for another budget-busting nuclear arms race.
However, even if we keep nuclear stockpiles under control, a different weapons race does seem inevitable. This week’s spy balloon crisis has shown that the US now faces a terrifying and unacceptable “inflatable arms gap” with China. I for one call on our elected leaders to close this gap and ensure American balloon warfare superiority. Fortunately, we’ve already got an arsenal of inflatable superweapons ready for rapid deployment.
Unleashing the New Cold War's WMDs (Weapons of Macy’s-Day Destruction)
Aryeh Deri, the hard-right leader of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, was relieved of his new post last month after the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that his leadership role in the government was “unreasonable in the extreme” due to his numerous criminal convictions.